UFC 131 Picks And Predictions

By Mikal
345 days ago

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs. Carwin, taking place in Vancouver, BC, is coming up this weekend with some intriguing matchups aside from the main event which will likely earn the winner a shot at the heavyweight title against Cain Velasquez later this year. This card is packed with amazing resumes and should be cut out for some very exciting fight finishes! Let’s look a little more in depth at how we can expect these fights to play out. Quick picks are listed at the bottom.

Junior Dos Santos (12-1) will headline the card fighting against evenly matched Shane Carwin (12-1). Santos owns eight KO/TKO and three submissions. Ten of his twelve wins came in the very first round. Santos had already proven he was ready for a title shot when the current champion, Velasquez, announced a layoff with an injured rotator-cuff. Rather than sit and wait, Santos decided to reschedule by taking on a coaching slot opposite of former heavyweight champion, Brock Lesnar, at The Ultimate Fighter Season 13. Lesnar’s previous illness of diverticulitis has once again become a problem and he has consequentially withdrawn from the subsequent matchup following the TUF 13 season.

Carwin stepped in to replace Lesnar. Carwin has finished all twelve of his fights, seven by KO/TKO and five by submission. Throughout his twelve wins, Carwin never made it into the second round of a fight; that was until Carwin last stepped in the cage against Lesnar. Carwin came out in his match against Lesnar and pounded him early at times arguably enough to prompt referee stoppage. During the never before experienced minute layoff between rounds, Carwin had a major adrenaline dump which led to a Lesnar submission as Carwin laid on the floor unable to defend himself.

I give an edge to Carwin’s striking power and his lunch box fists. If he lands on Santos early, the fight could be over. However, I’d edge Santos with the advantage of striking accuracy and certainly endurance and stamina. Carwin showed in his fight against Lesnar his inability to pick his shots wisely and thus tired out quickly. Santos is much more patient and, as he showed in his fight with Roy Nelson, can go three rounds and continue beating on his opponent. Carwin can close this fight out in the first few minutes of the fight, but I’d side with Santos to bring a game plan of evading Carwin early, and waiting until the later rounds, picking apart Carwin and ultimately scoring a TKO in the second or third.

The co-main event will feature Kenny Florian’s (14-5) featherweight debut taking on the dominant Diego Nunes (16-1). Florian is a dominant lightweight losing only to the division’s elite. Unable to win the title on two occasions and another top contender spot, Florian decided to cut to the next lower division giving him the weight advantage. Florian’s wrestling is solid, where he likes to lie on his opponents and shred their faces with viciously sharp elbows.

Nunes finished his first eleven fights, five of them by his dangerous guillotine, five by KN/TKO, and one by armbar. Nunes however since entering the WEC late 2008 against tougher competition has been unable to finish any of his last six fights. Nunes earned three unanimous decision victories, two split decisions victories, and a unanimous decision loss throughout that stretch. I expect Florian will make a large featherweight and will control this fight exactly as he prefers. Florian will soften Nunes where he will be able to take advantage with a third round rear-naked-choke.

Also included is the UFC debut of submission specialist, Jon Olav Einemo (6-1), who owns all six of his wins in the first round, and five by submission. Einemo was originally slated to take on Carwin, but as mentioned earlier, Carwin was bumped to the main event when Lesnar withdrew due to illness. Einemo will now welcome 20-2 Dave Herman (20-2) who will also be making his UFC debut.

Herman, like Einemo is no stranger to finishing fights; Herman has finished nineteen of his twenty career wins, fourteen by KO/TKO, and five by submission. Of those nineteen finishes, eighteen of them were in the very first round! This fight will be hard-pressed to get outside of the first stanza. I’ll side with the experience and pick Herman by way of early TKO.

The next fight is one where both fighters are trying to stay relevant in the middleweight class. Submission expert Demian Maia (14-2) already competed against current and dominant champion, Anderson Silva, where he fell incredibly short in an embarrassing performance from both Maia and the champion. Since then, Maia has reeled off two consecutive unanimous decision victories in his path to get back to another title opportunity.

Heavy handed Mark Munoz (10-2) landed on the wrong side of a split decision to current middleweight contender, Yushin Okami. After that loss, Munoz rebounded with a unanimous decision win over Aaron Simpson, and an impressive KO victory over C.B. Dollaway.

Although I still don’t think Maia stacks up against Anderson Silva, I see him controlling Munoz earning a unanimous decision victory and getting closer to another boring rematch against the champion.